As the aviation industry struggles to get back to normal after it has been seriously battered by the Covid-19 pandemic, the industry is already facing a pilot shortage problem.
According to a new study performed by New York- and London-based consultancy Oliver Wyman, the pilot shortage problem is going to be worse. The group called the COVID-19 outbreak a “momentary reprieve” for the issue of pilot shortages. For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond.
For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilization rather than passengers. When that returns to normal, airlines are going to find themselves with a shortage rather than a surplus, as is the case at the moment.
The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region, but in the U.S., it is particularly worrisome. The country has an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training. Oliver Wyman noted
The main issue is not a question of whether the sector will experience a pilot shortage, but when it will occur and how large the gap will be between supply and demand.
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